UFC 158 Main Card Picks

Kingdom MMA main card picks for this Saturdays UFC 158 event

Georges St-Pierre vs Nick Diaz

Chris: Let me just start by saying how insane it would be if Nick Diaz was to become champion, you think it’s hard to get the guy to do press obligations now, imagine if he was ‘the motherfucking’ champion.

Don’t get me wrong I love Nick Diaz. I love how he is genuinely willing to fight anyone, and I share some of his sentiments on boring wrestlers who stall, but I just don’t see him winning this fight. Granted nothing in MMA is guaranteed, and Diaz does have the skill set to stop GSP and has clearly rattled GSP, but I don’t see how Diaz stops the constant take downs of GSP, and the only way he wins is by an unlikely late submission off his back.

St-Pierre to win by a lopsided unanimous decision.

Pick – Georges St-Pierre UD

Tommy: It will be a long tough night for Diaz, GSP will look to take him down, ground & pound him for 5 rounds and enjoy every second of it.

I love Diaz & what he stands for inside the cage, but 13 months out of the ring won't help his cause and I struggling to find a way he can beat GSP…

Pick – Georges St-Pierre TKO4

Ben: I’m going to go straight in and say it. I don’t think Diaz should be fighting for the title and in no ways deserves it. How he can get the shot over Hendricks makes absolutely no sense to me.

Thankfully for me though, I see absolutely no way in which he wins this fight. In fact I see more chance of Diaz not showing up to the fight than I do seeing him winning the fight.

No matter where this fight takes place it will be GSP who controls the fight from start to finish and my only disappointment will be that I don’t think GSP will finish Diaz. However I do think it will be so one sided even a stupid judge won’t be able to score it wrong.

Pick – Georges St-Pierre UD

Carlos Condit vs Johny Hendricks

Chris: You have got to feel sorry for Hendricks – he knocks out Fitch, beats Kos, then knocks out out Kampmann in a number one contender fighter, and still no title shot! The worse bit about it is this fight is probably going to rob him of his well deserved shot at the Welterweight title, in a fight that robs a division of its clear cut contender, something the UFC has been keen on doing in 2013 – see Bisping vs Belfort, Overeem vs Bigfoot, and Dan Henderson vs Lyoto Machida.

Sure Bigg Rigg could land one left and Condits world could come crashing down, and I can appreciate his college wrestling pedigree, but Condit is the complete package – he has excellent sweeps to get back up if he is taken down, a descent ju-jitsu game, KO power, and is a smart fight.

Look for Condit to frustrate Hendricks the same way he did Nick Diaz by popping in an out, and take a heartbreaking unanimous decision.

Pick - Carlos Condit UD

Tommy: Don't get me wrong I love this match up, but it doesn't make much sense to me.

Hendricks gains nothing by winning, he's the no.1 contender and has everything to lose. If Condit wins, he won't be getting a title shot next.

Condit will look to keep the fight at range staying away from Hendricks huge left hand. Using his jabs and movement not allowing Hendricks to get on the inside and land that power bomb.
If Hendricks can force his way inside taking some damage in the process he has a good chance of either landing that left hand or taking Condit down then he has a chance of winning the fight.

Pick – Carlos Condit UD

Ben: I agree with Tommy on this one, I love the match up however I preferred the original fight of Condit vs Rory. I still believe Rory got screwed in the first fight against Condit and would have loved to see the rematch.

That being said I see two outcomes to this fight. The first and the one I am hoping happens for Hendricks as he deserves his shot at the belt is he connects with his hammer of a left hand and knocks out Condit, unfortunately I am not confident this will happen.

I predict this fight will play out much like the Condit vs Diaz fight did… just with less middle fingers being stuck up during the fight. I see Condit getting inside scoring with quick combos and leg kicks before quickly getting back on the outside. Unfortunately this may mean it ends up being a boring fight when it has the potential to be such a great fight. It will also be a sad end to the run at the belt for now.

Pick – Carlos Condit SD

Jake Ellenberger vs Nate Marquardt

Chris: For me this is a great match up of two quality welterweights. Marquardt on one hand has pretty solid hands, is big for the division, is always a submission threat, but can be inconsistent. His opponent Ellenberger, has strong offensive wrestling, one punch knockout power, is coming off a full training camp, but has been known to have cardio issues. This fight could go either way, that being said Marquardt has shown in recent fights he can be hit, and Ellenberger has the offense to win this fight either using his wrestling or striking.

Pick - Jake Ellenberger- SD

Tommy: Just even mentioning the cheats name sends shivers down my spine! Though, he's taken the fight at short notice.

Both can be inconsistent inside the cage and never totally sure what fighter will turn up. Nate will be the bigger fighter and is huge at 170, his clinch will be better and his striking. Jake will have the edge wrestling, he's had a full training camp to prepare and as long as he can go the full 3 rounds I expect him to edge out Nate.

Pick - Jake Ellenberger UD

Ben: Again this fight plays out one of two ways for me, the first is that Nate comes out and puts on a performance the likes of his fight against Tyron Woodley in which he comes out as a man possessed and wanting to prove that he deserves to be back in the UFC. Unfortunately for Nate having not had a full training camp this may be a bit too soon for this to happen.

What I think is more likely is for Jake Ellenberger to out wrestle Marquardt and try and keep him on the ground before beating Nate with his ground and pound like we saw in the first round against Martin Kampmann.  I believe if he gets him down and tires Nate out in the first round the fitness levels will start to pull through and Ellenberger having the full camp should then start to dominate.

Pick – Jake Ellenberger UD

Chris Camozzi vs Nick Ring

Chris: For me this fight is a pick 'em fight. I think both fighters bring their own unique skill set - Ring has better kicks, and a better ground game, Camozzi has better boxing. The real question is how fit injury prone Ring is coming into this fight. While I wouldn't at all surprise me if Ring wins, I like Camozzi to use his superior boxing and improving ground game to keep this fight on the fight and to take this one by decision.

Pick - Chris Camozzi UD

Tommy: Camozzi is on a 3 fight win streak looking to make it 4 against Ring. Though Ring has a better all round game . Im picking Ring to take the fight to the ground and submit Camozzi inside the distance.

Pick - Ring Sub 2nd Round

Ben: I believe this fight certainly could go either way and is a very even match up, though both fighters bring completely different skill sets to the table. I also think that Ring will just have the edge thanks to his ground game and will finish the fight in the third with a submission and put an end to Camozzi’s three fight win streak.

Pick – Ring Sub 3rd Round
 

Colin Fletcher vs Mike Ricci

Chris: There is no one I want to win more on this card than Colin Fletcher, in the times I have met him he has been polite, charming and excellent with the fans – I have seen him climb walls and ignore telling offs from stewards to take photos with fans, and give most of his evening to spend time with them when he just trying to have a night out with his wife. That said I’m not sure he has the skill set to win this fight. Ricci is a quality fighter, he simply had a bad day against a great wrestler in Colton Smith. I think Ricci has the better striking and the better ground game, and justifies being the favourite here.

Pick - Mike Ricci UD


Tommy: Ricci is back to his natural weight class, after losing to Colton Smith in the TUF 16 final. This will suit him much better.

Freakshow is a lovely guy , but I think Ricci is more well rounded and will grind out a UD over Colin.
I really hope I’m wrong, as Colin has much more to offer than just a clown.

Pick - Ricci UD

Ben: I agree with Chris, you will struggle to meet a nicer MMA fighter than Colin Fletcher. A fighter who is willing to give up so much of his time to chat to fans and have pictures taken with hundreds of people in a night.

Although, Fletcher loves dressing as the clown in the weigh ins and outside of the cage his skills in the cage are far from being a joke. He has a lot to offer and I feel he will come out and put on a show this weekend after his poor performance last time out (by his own admission). Unfortunately all I think this will lead to is a competitive bout with Ricci but I still believe Ricci will have too much and will take the win.

The fact that Ricci had been competitive and made it to the TUF finale in a weight class that is not his natural proves he can fight. Now back to Lightweight I believe this will be a fight where Ricci can showcase his skills again to a PPV audience.

Pick – Ricci UD